- Bitcoin fell below $3,920 yesterday, as expected, confirming a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change. As a result, the crucial support of the 30-day moving average, currently at $3,883, could be breached in the next day or two.
- A break below the 30-day MA, if confirmed, would strengthen the case for a deeper drop toward the key support levels lined up at $3,775 and $3,658.
- A strong bounce from the 30-day MA would weaken the bearish case. That said, a UTC close above $4,055 is needed to revive the bullish view.
Bitcoin (BTC) is on the defensive after briefly falling below $3,900 at around 07:00 UTC this morning.
The cryptocurrency fell to a 10-day low of $3,850 on Monday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $3,920–$4,055. Further, BTC closed (UTC) yesterday below $3,920, reinforcing the bearish outside reversal candle created on March 21.
The repeated failure to scale $4,000 in a convincing manner followed by the drop below $3,920 validates the bearish view put forward by the historically strong resistance of the downward sloping 21-week moving average (MA).
As a result, the cryptocurrency risks falling below the 30-day MA, currently flatlined at $3,883, in the short-term. Notably, that average has put brakes on the sell-off at least three times in the last three weeks. Hence, a break below $3,883 could further strengthen the bear grip around the cryptocurrency.
The bearish case, however, would weaken if the price bounces up strongly from the 30-day line.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,906 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.73 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.
4-hour and daily charts
As seen on the 4-hour chart, BTC has found acceptance below the 100-candle MA support, having dived out of the sideways channel yesterday.
While the 200-candle MA has held ground in the last 12 hours, its repeated defense has failed to produce a stronger bounce – a sign that bullish sentiment has waned. Validating that argument is the fact that the major averages (50, 100 and 200) have shed bullish bias (are flatlined).
On the daily chart, BTC has breached the ascending trendline and the 5- and 10-candle MAs have produced a bearish crossover, validating yesterday’s bearish close below $3,920.
Hence, both the 200-candle MA on the 4-hour chart and the 30-day MA, currently at $3,888 and $3,883, respectively, could take up the role of resistance in the next 24 hours.
The previous three-day candle closed below $3,920 – the low of the preceding doji candle – confirming a bearish reversal. As a result, the path of least resistance appears to be on the downside.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.